A no deal Brexit will be ‘severe and overwhelmingly negative’ for Britain, an academic think tank warned.
The impact will be most significant on agriculture and food production, the economy and financial services, air travel and medicine supplies, The UK In A Changing Europe argued.
Its Cost of No Deal Revisited report found that British people currently living in Europe could be worst affected as they would be reliant on EU member states’ interpretation of the law.
EU citizens in the UK are likely to be relatively secure, given government guarantees and the fact there are laws in place.
Professor Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, said: ‘Make no mistake, the impact of a no deal Brexit will be severe. In the short term at least, considerable uncertainty and disruption will result.
‘While it is wise to plan for no deal, and indeed attempt to mitigate against the worst aspects of a chaotic Brexit, it makes far more sense to avoid such an outcome altogether.’
The report warned the European Union was ‘highly unlikely to be willing to negotiate mitigating actions that are far more important for the UK than for the 27 unless and until they receive, at a minimum, credible assurances that the withdrawal issues can be resolved’.
‘So while a chaotic Brexit remains a possibility, either via a breakdown in the negotiations or the inability of British politicians to provide a majority for any conceivable negotiated outcome, its impacts will be severe and overwhelmingly negative,’ the report said.
‘In the short-term at least, considerable uncertainty and disruption will result.
‘In all likelihood, the chances of negotiating the kinds of mitigating deals that the Government seems to assume will be possible in its technical notices on the pact of no deal seem slim.’